The 4-Hour Cairns Sepsis Model: A novel approach to predicting sepsis mortality at intensive care unit admission.

Sepsis commonly causes intensive care unit (ICU) mortality, yet early identification of adults with sepsis at risk of dying in the ICU remains a challenge. The aim of the study was to derive a mortality prediction model (MPM) to assist ICU clinicians and researchers as a clinical decision support tool for adults with sepsis within 4 h of ICU admission. A cohort study was performed using 500 consecutive admissions between 2014 and 2018 to an Australian tertiary ICU, who were aged ≥18 years and had sepsis. A total of 106 independent variables were assessed against ICU episode-of-care mortality. Multivariable backward stepwise logistic regression derived an MPM, which was assessed on discrimination, calibration, fit, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and bootst rapped. The average cohort age was 58 years, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III-j severity score was 72, and the case fatality rate was 12%. The 4-Hour Cairns Sepsis Model (CSM-4) consists of age, history of renal disease, number of vasopressors, Glasgow Coma Scale, lactate, bica rbonate, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, and magnesium with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–0.95, p
Source: Current Awareness Service for Health (CASH) - Category: Consumer Health News Source Type: news