Increasing Preparedness for Extreme Events using Plausibility ‐Based Scenario Planning: Lessons from COVID‐19

This article considers how plausibility-based scenario planning can increase preparedness for extreme events like a global pandemic, thereby reducing overconfidence in co ntinued business-as-usual in their face, and emphasizing precaution in their wake. In so doing, the article contributes to what in this journal has recently been called “type B,” “generic and fundamental” risk science, which is concerned with identifying better ways to present and communicat e uncertainties. In focusing on plausibility-based scenario planning, the article highlights a method seldom previously discussed in relation to risk science, yet one that can contribute much to this type B component of it.
Source: Risk Analysis - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Perspective Source Type: research