A  mathematical model to estimate the number of unreported SARS-CoV-2 infections in the early phase of the pandemic using Germany and Italy as examples

CONCLUSION: The number of unreported SARS-CoV-2-infected cases derived from the model can largely explain the difference in observations in case mortalities and of conditions in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and Italy. The model is simple, fast, and robust to implement, and can respond well when the reporting numbers are not representative of the population in terms of age structure. We suggest considering this model for efficient and early estimations of unreported case numbers in future epidemics and pandemics.PMID:34297161 | DOI:10.1007/s00103-021-03384-z
Source: Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Source Type: research