Rule discovery to identify patterns contributing to overrepresentation and severity of run-off-the-road crashes

Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Apr 10;155:106119. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106119. Online ahead of print.ABSTRACTThe main objective of this paper was to analyse the roadway, environmental, and driver-related factors associated with an overrepresentation of frequency and severity of run-off-the-road (ROR) crashes. The data used in this study refer to the 6167 crashes occurred in the section Naples-Candela of A16 motorway, Italy in the period from 2001 to 2011. The analysis was carried out using the rule discovery technique due to its ability of extracting knowledge from large amounts of data previously unknown and indistinguishable by investigating patterns that occur together in a given event. The rules were filtered by support, confidence, lift, and validated by the lift increase criterion. A two-step analysis was carried out. In the first step, rules discovering factors contributing to ROR crashes were identified. In the second step, studying only ROR crashes, rules discovering factors contributing to severe and fatal injury (KSI) crashes were identified. As a result, 94 significant rules for ROR crashes and 129 significant rules for KSI crashes were identified. These rules represent several combinations of geometric design, roadside, barrier performance, crash dynamic, vehicle, environmental and drivers' characteristics associated with an overrepresentation of frequency and severity of ROR crashes. From the methodological point of view, study results show that the a priori algorithm...
Source: Accident; Analysis and Prevention. - Category: Accident Prevention Authors: Source Type: research