Modeling and presentation of vaccination coverage estimates using data from household surveys

Vaccine. 2021 Apr 3:S0264-410X(21)00275-9. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.007. Online ahead of print.ABSTRACTIt is becoming increasingly popular to produce high-resolution maps of vaccination coverage by fitting Bayesian geostatistical models to data from household surveys. Usually, the surveys adopt a stratified cluster sampling design. We discuss a number of crucial choices with respect to two key aspects of the map production process: the acknowledgement of the survey design in modeling, and the appropriate presentation of estimates and their uncertainties. Specifically, we consider the importance of accounting for urban/rural stratification and cluster-level non-spatial excess variation in survey outcomes, when fitting geostatistical models. We also discuss the trade-off between the geographical scale and precision of model-based estimates, and demonstrate visualization methods for mapping and ranking that emphasize the probabilistic interpretation of results. A novel approach to coverage map presentation is proposed to allow comparison and control of the overall map uncertainty. We use measles vaccination coverage in Nigeria as a motivating example and illustrate the different issues using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey.PMID:33824039 | DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.007
Source: Vaccine - Category: Allergy & Immunology Authors: Source Type: research