Mid-Epidemic Forecasts of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: A Bivariate Model Applied to the UK

CONCLUSIONS: Many applications of phenomenological models have been to complete epidemics. However, evaluation of such models based simply on their fit to observed data may give only a partial picture, and cross validation against actual trends is also valuable. Similarly, it may be preferable to model incidence rather than cumulative data, although this raises questions about suitable error densities for modelling often erratic fluctuations. Hence, there may be utility in evaluating alternative error assumptions.PMID:33628235 | PMC:PMC7881738 | DOI:10.1155/2021/8847116
Source: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Source Type: research