Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIR/SQAIR Epidemic Models.

Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIR/SQAIR Epidemic Models. Comput Math Methods Med. 2020;2020:1465923 Authors: Amiri Mehra AH, Shafieirad M, Abbasi Z, Zamani I Abstract In this paper, the SIR epidemiological model for the COVID-19 with unknown parameters is considered in the first strategy. Three curves (S, I, and R) are fitted to the real data of South Korea, based on a detailed analysis of the actual data of South Korea, taken from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). Using the least square method and minimizing the error between the fitted curve and the actual data, unknown parameters, like the transmission rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate, are estimated. The goodness of fit model is investigated with two criteria (SSE and RMSE), and the uncertainty range of the estimated parameters is also presented. Also, using the obtained determined model, the possible ending time and the turning point of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States are predicted. Due to the lack of treatment and vaccine, in the next strategy, a new group called quarantined people is added to the proposed model. Also, a hidden state, including asymptomatic individuals, which is very common in COVID-19, is considered to make the model more realistic and closer to the real world. Then, the SIR model is developed into the SQAIR model. The delay in the recovery of the...
Source: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine - Category: Statistics Tags: Comput Math Methods Med Source Type: research