When Will this $%!# Pandemic End?

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a worldwide effect for what seems like an eternity. After shelter-in-place orders became more prevalent in March,  most people probably didn’t think they’d still be wearing masks in October. So the question remains, when will the pandemic end?  It turns out there are quite a few factors that contribute to the rise and fall of a pandemic, some within our control, some that are not. An outbreak becomes a pandemic when it meets two criteria, first, it spreads rapidly and widely, and second, it must qualify as a severe disease. If either of these factors change, it is no longer considered a pandemic. For instance, the common cold spreads quickly and to many hosts, but is not severe in its implications. In contrast, polio is a severe disease that was once widespread but now only occurs on very rare occasions. Neither polio nor the common cold now fit the definition of a pandemic.  Slowing the Spread While it’s not definitive, chances are that by September 2021 we will see that COVID is no longer considered widespread. This may happen months earlier or a year later. But by September, we will have made it through a cold and flu season, and it is also likely that we will have a vaccine by that point. Several pharmaceutical companies are in stage 3 trials with COVID vaccines, and there’s a good chance a workable vaccine will be available sometime around April.  While a vaccine will be helpful, it’s likely it won’t be foolpr...
Source: Conversations with Dr Greene - Category: Child Development Authors: Tags: Dr. Greene's Blog Coronavirus COVID COVID-19 COVID-19 Feature Source Type: blogs