Who's at Risk? A Prognostic Model for Severity Prediction in Pediatric Acute Pancreatitis

Objectives: The aim of the study was to validate and optimize a severity prediction model for acute pancreatitis (AP) and to examine blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level changes from admission as a severity predictor. Study Design: Patients from 2 hospitals were included for the validation model (Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters and Children's National Hospital). Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters and Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center data were used for analysis of BUN at 24 to 48 hours. Results: The validation cohort included 73 patients; 22 (30%) with either severe or moderately severe AP, combined into the all severe AP (SAP) group. Patients with SAP had higher BUN (P = 0.002) and lower albumin (P = 0.005). Admission BUN was confirmed as a significant predictor (P = 0.005) of SAP (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60–0.86). Combining BUN (P = 0.005) and albumin (P = 0.004) resulted in better prediction for SAP (AUROC 0.83, 95% CI 0.72–0.94). A total of 176 AP patients were analyzed at 24–48 hours; 39 (22%) met criteria for SAP. Patients who developed SAP had a significantly higher BUN (P 
Source: Journal of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition - Category: Gastroenterology Tags: Original Article: Pancreatology Source Type: research