Predicting COVID-19 spread in the face of control measures in West-Africa.

Predicting COVID-19 spread in the face of control measures in West-Africa. Math Biosci. 2020 Jul 29;:108431 Authors: Taboe HB, Salako KV, Tison JM, Ngonghala CN, Kakaï RG Abstract The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is causing devastating demographic, social, and economic damage globally. Understanding current patterns of the pandemic spread and forecasting its long-term trajectory is essential in guiding policies aimed at curtailing the pandemic. This is particularly important in regions with weak economies and fragile health care systems such as West-Africa. We formulate and use a deterministic compartmental model to (i) assess the current patterns of COVID-19 spread in West-Africa, (ii) evaluate the impact of currently implemented control measures, and (iii) predict the future course of the pandemic with and without currently implemented and additional control measures in West-Africa. An analytical expression for the threshold level of control measures (involving a reduction in the effective contact rate) required to curtail the pandemic is computed. Considering currently applied health control measures, numerical simulations of the model using baseline parameter values estimated from West-African COVID-19 data project a 67% reduction in the daily number of cases when the epidemic attains its peak. More reduction in the number of cases will be achieved if additional public health control measures that result in a reduction ...
Source: Mathematical Biosciences - Category: Statistics Authors: Tags: Math Biosci Source Type: research