A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares

We present the -scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the -scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be.

Source: ScienceNOW - July 29, 2020 Category: Science Authors: Kusano, K., Iju, T., Bamba, Y., Inoue, S. Tags: Astronomy, Physics reports Source Type: news