Are Surging State COVID-19 Cases Due to Early Reopening?

Alan Reynolds"How Coronavirus Cases Have Risen Since States Reopened" inThe New York Times July 9 claimed, " Florida and South Carolina were among the first to open up and are now among the states leading the current surge. In contrast, the states that bore the brunt of cases in March and April but were slower to reopen have seen significant decreases in reported cases since. Average daily cases in New York are down 52 percent since it reopened in late May and down 83 percent in Massachusetts " (which reopened May 18).The purpose of this note is to question whether or not it is accurate to simply attribute the " current surge " in cases or deaths to the " states first to open up. "TheNew York Times article showed the percentage changes in cases since reopening – the date when states " lifted order to stay at home or allowed major sectors such as retail, restaurants and personal care services to reopen either statewide or in most areas. " Eight states " first to open up " reopened before May 1, twenty more before May 15, and twenty-two states were " slower to reopen " from May 15 to May 29.Unfortunately, the author ' s main example – saying Florida was " among the first to open up " on May 4 –puts that state into his middle group (May 2 to May 14). To keep 70% of Florida in the narrative (Southeast Florida remained closed), my Table defines early reopening as May 4 or earlier. I redefine late reopening to mean ten states (including D.C.) that reopened after May 2...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs