Modeling the time-lag effect of sea surface temperatures on ciguatera poisoning in the South Pacific: Implications for surveillance and response.

In this study, we used prewhitened crosscorrelation analysis and auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) modeling to develop predictive models of monthly CP incidence in Cook Islands and French Polynesia, two ciguatera-endemic regions in the South Pacific, utilizing the latest epidemiological data. Results reveal the significant time-lagged associations between the monthly CP incidence rate and several indicators relating to sea surface temperature (SST). In particular, SST anomaly is proven to be a strong positive predictor of an increased ciguatera incidence for both countries. If these time-lags can be supported by more investigations, it will allow health authorities to take appropriate actions, to limit or avoid an epidemic risk, especially on high-risk climate scenarios. PMID: 32387348 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Toxicon - Category: Toxicology Authors: Tags: Toxicon Source Type: research