Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations

This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40 –60 (15.8–19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50–70 (17.7–21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adapt ation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.
Source: Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Category: Environmental Health Source Type: research