Covid-19 pandemic by the “real-time” monitoring: the Tunisian case and lessons for global epidemics in the context of 3PM strategies

AbstractCovid-19 is neither the first nor the last viral epidemic which societies around the world are, were and will be affected by. Which lessons should be taken from the current pandemic situation? The Covid-19 disease is still not well characterised, and many research teams all over the world are working on prediction of the epidemic scenario, protective measures to populations and sub-populations, therapeutic and vaccination issues, amongst others. Contextually, countries with currently low numbers of Covid-19-infected individuals such as Tunisia are intended to take lessons from those countries which already reached the exponential phase of the infection distribution as well as from those which have the exponential phase behind them and record a minor number of new cases such as China. To this end, in Tunisia, the pandemic wave has started with a significant delay compared with Europe, the main economic partner of the country. In this paper, we do analyse the current pandemic situation in this country by studying the infection evolution and considering potential protective strategies to prevent a pandemic scenario. The model is predictive based on a large number of undetected Covid-19 cases that is particularly true for some country regions such as Sfax. Infection distribution and mortality rate analysis demonstrate a highly heterogeneous picture over the country. Qualitative and quantitative comparative analysis leads to a conclusion that the reliable “real-time” m...
Source: EPMA Journal - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research