Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.

Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis. 2020;2020:4513854 Authors: Mettle FO, Osei Affi P, Twumasi C Abstract Mathematical models can aid in elucidating the spread of infectious disease dynamics within a given population over time. In an attempt to model tuberculosis (TB) dynamics among high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, the SEIR epidemic model with demography was employed within both deterministic and stochastic settings for comparison purposes. The deterministic model showed success in modelling TB infection in the region to the transmission dynamics of the stochastic SEIR model over time. It predicted tuberculosis dying out in ten of twelve high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region, but an outbreak in Obuasi municipal and Amansie West district. The effect of introducing treatment at the incubation stage of TB transmission was also investigated, and it was discovered that treatment introduced at the exposed stage decreased the spread of TB. Branching process approximation was used to derive explicit forms of relevant epidemiological quantities of the deterministic SEIR model for stability analysis of equilibrium points. Numerical simulations were performed to validate the overall infection rate, basic reproductive number, herd immunity threshold, and Malthusian parameter based on bootstrapping, jackknife, and Latin Hypercube sampling s...
Source: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Tags: Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis Source Type: research