Examining rainfall and cholera dynamics in Haiti using statistical and dynamic modeling approaches.

Examining rainfall and cholera dynamics in Haiti using statistical and dynamic modeling approaches. Epidemics. 2013 Dec;5(4):197-207 Authors: Eisenberg MC, Kujbida G, Tuite AR, Fisman DN, Tien JH Abstract Haiti has been in the midst of a cholera epidemic since October 2010. Rainfall is thought to be associated with cholera here, but this relationship has only begun to be quantitatively examined. In this paper, we quantitatively examine the link between rainfall and cholera in Haiti for several different settings (including urban, rural, and displaced person camps) and spatial scales, using a combination of statistical and dynamic models. Statistical analysis of the lagged relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence was conducted using case crossover analysis and distributed lag nonlinear models. Dynamic models consisted of compartmental differential equation models including direct (fast) and indirect (delayed) disease transmission, where indirect transmission was forced by empirical rainfall data. Data sources include cholera case and hospitalization time series from the Haitian Ministry of Public Health, the United Nations Water, Sanitation and Health Cluster, International Organization for Migration, and Hôpital Albert Schweitzer. Rainfall data was obtained from rain gauges from the U.S. Geological Survey and Haiti Regeneration Initiative, and remote sensing rainfall data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropi...
Source: Rural Remote Health - Category: Rural Health Authors: Tags: Epidemics Source Type: research