Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS ‐CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia

This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT. The publicly available data on human cases of MERS‐CoV inf ections reported in Saudi Arabia (2012–2018) were sourced from the FluTrackers, World Health Organization, Saudi Ministry of Health, and published literature associated with MERS outbreaks investigations. The risk assessment of MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia was analyzed using the original GFT and mGF T criteria, algorithms, and thresholds. The scoring points for each criterion were determined by three researchers to minimize the subjectivity. The results showed 40 points of total possible 54 points using the original GFT (likelihood: 74%), and 40 points of a total possible 60 points (likelihood: 67%) using the mGFT, both tools indicating a high likelihood that human MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia is unnatural in origin. The findings simply flag unusual patterns in this outbreak, but do not prove unnatural etiology. Proof of bioattacks can only be obtained by law enforcement and intelligence ag encies. This study demonstrated the value and flexibility of the mGFT in assessing and predicting the risk for an ongoing outbreak with simple criteria.
Source: Risk Analysis - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research