Cancers, Vol. 12, Pages 834: External Validation of the Dutch SOURCE Survival Prediction Model in Belgian Metastatic Oesophageal and Gastric Cancer Patients

Cancers, Vol. 12, Pages 834: External Validation of the Dutch SOURCE Survival Prediction Model in Belgian Metastatic Oesophageal and Gastric Cancer Patients Cancers doi: 10.3390/cancers12040834 Authors: J.J. van Kleef H.G. van den Boorn R.H.A. Verhoeven K. Vanschoenbeek A. Abu-Hanna A.H. Zwinderman M.A.G. Sprangers M.G.H. van Oijen H. De Schutter H.W.M. van Laarhoven The SOURCE prediction model predicts individualised survival conditional on various treatments for patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to validate SOURCE in an external cohort from the Belgian Cancer Registry. Data of Belgian patients diagnosed with metastatic disease between 2004 and 2014 were extracted (n = 4097). Model calibration and discrimination (c-indices) were determined. A total of 2514 patients with oesophageal cancer and 1583 patients with gastric cancer with a median survival of 7.7 and 5.4 months, respectively, were included. The oesophageal cancer model showed poor calibration (intercept: 0.30, slope: 0.42) with an absolute mean prediction error of 14.6%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was −2.6%. The concordance index (c-index) of the oesophageal model was 0.64. The gastric cancer model showed good calibration (intercept: 0.02, slope: 0.91) with an absolute mean prediction error of 2.5%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was 2.0%. The c-index of the gastric ca...
Source: Cancers - Category: Cancer & Oncology Authors: Tags: Article Source Type: research