The Elephant and the Virus

With respect to the coronavirus pandemic, I am concerned about India. Given their population density and more than 1.3 billion residents, the virus situation there could soon make what’s happening in Italy and Spain look tame. Earlier this week India was reporting only 129 infections and 2 deaths. Today it’s at 249 cases and 5 deaths. While those numbers may seem ridiculously low relative to India’s population, they appear to be starting out much the same as any other country. While mathematical illiterates might dismiss these numbers as trivial, fortunately India’s Prime Minister and their National Security Council are paying serious attention to what’s happening elsewhere. Consequently, India has been on lockdown since March 18 and plans to continue through March 31. I think they’ll need significantly longer, but it’s good to see them taking this step. India’s director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy, Dr. Ramanan Laxminarayan, warns that India may have to deal with a tsunami of about 300 million coronavirus cases. He estimates that India has 70K-100K ICU beds in the entire country. Note that the total ICU beds in the USA are also estimated to be in this same range, and the USA is already on a path to overflow these beds in the weeks ahead but with a billion fewer people. One of my concerns is that India may be severely under-testing. So I’d pay a lot more attention to the death count...
Source: Steve Pavlina's Personal Development Blog - Category: Psychiatry & Psychology Authors: Tags: Health Source Type: blogs