The Misleading Arithmetic of COVID-19 Death Rates

Alan ReynoldsAssuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease (the death rate) must surely have beenmuch lower than the 2 –3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported.The triangle graph, from a  February 10 study fromImperial College London, shows that most people infected by COVID-19 are never counted as being infected. That is because, the Imperial College study explains, “the bottom of the pyramid represents the likely largest population of those infected with either mild, non‐​specific symptoms or who are asymptomatic.”As the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, explained in hisFebruary 28 briefing, “Most people will have mild disease and get better without needing any special care.” Several studies have found that about 80% of all the COVID-19 cases have relatively minor symptoms which end without severe illness and therefore remain unreported.A Chinese study in theJournal of the American Medical Association, February 20, found a “case‐​fatality rate” of 2.3%, meaning 1,023 died out of 44,672 cases. But the total sample in that study (72,314) included an additional 27,642 non‐​confirmed cases, and simply including cases (let aloneunreportedminor cases) would have reduced the fatality rate to 1.4%. China ‐​based esti...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs