Reasons to chill and reasons not to chill

Okay, I'm not an epidemiologist or a virologist. But I do know something about those subjects, I'm a public health professor, and I am an expert in clinical communication and risk communication. So I'm going to offer some observations that I hope will help people keep this public health scare in proper perspective and maybe be of practical use.There are two important parameters we need to understand the risk caused by any communicable disease. I'm going to broadly say transmissibility, and the probability that exposure will lead to serious disease.We often see transmissibility represented as a single number, called R0 or " R naught. " That's supposed to mean the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infectious individual, in an exposure naive population. So, as should be intuitively obvious, if R0 is greater than 1, the disease can spread, and if it's less than 1, it should peter out. If R0>1, then the growth in cases will presumably be exponential, although how fast the exponentiation happens obviously depends on how long it take to get to the R0 number. If R0=2 and the person infects those two people in one day, then that person will generate 128 cases in 1 week and more than 16,000 cases in two weeks. If R0=3, then we're talking 4.8 million cases in two weeks. Yikes! (In reality, of course, that number is likely to be spread out over a week or two, not a single day, so this is just by way of illustration.)Fortunately, that isn't act...
Source: Stayin' Alive - Category: American Health Source Type: blogs

Related Links:

With all of the shortages, I know several people turning to ebay to buy their own - obviously most of the ones out there are Chinese made kn95 (their version of n95) - is there any self test that anyone knows to see if these masks actually work? I ordered some for my team - as our option is this or a surgical mask - but want to test to see if the KN95's are better or not
Source: Student Doctor Network - Category: Universities & Medical Training Authors: Tags: Pharmacy Source Type: forums
HIGH blood pressure is often branded the "silent killer" because its effects are not immediately perceptible to the eye but it can lead to life-threatening complications. The surest way to reduce high blood pressure is to add certain ingredients to your meals, including an Asian staple
Source: Daily Express - Health - Category: Consumer Health News Source Type: news
"CODE-99" rings out. In 40 minutes, six patients go into cardiac arrest. Four die. This is what it's like inside a New York City ER treating people with coronavirus.
Source: CNN.com - Health - Category: Consumer Health News Source Type: news
South Korea reported fewer than 50 new coronavirus cases for the first time since its peak at the end of February as daily infections in Asia's largest outbreak outside China continued to trend downward.
Source: Reuters: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Tags: healthNews Source Type: news
Source: BMJ Comments - Category: General Medicine Source Type: forums
CONCLUSIONS The imaging manifestations of early-stage COVID-19 are relatively mild, and the imaging findings of some patients are not typical, which can easily lead to missed diagnoses. Thus, suspected cases need to be closely monitored, and epidemiological history and clinical laboratory examination should also be considered during diagnosis. PMID: 32246819 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Medical Science Monitor - Category: Research Tags: Med Sci Monit Source Type: research
CONCLUSIONS RA is an active medicinal material that can be developed into a safe and effective multi-targeted anticancer treatment for CCA. PMID: 32246704 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Medical Science Monitor - Category: Research Tags: Med Sci Monit Source Type: research
CONCLUSIONS These results indicate that GDLP against T2DM-induced hepatic steatosis, oxidative stress, and inflammation by improving the Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway in db/db mice, suggesting the GDLP may serve as an effective strategy for in fatty liver treatment. PMID: 32245940 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Medical Science Monitor - Category: Research Tags: Med Sci Monit Source Type: research
Foods high in soluble fiber like oatmeal, nuts and beans were associated with reduced breast cancer incidence.
Source: NYT Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Breast Cancer Diet and Nutrition Fiber (Dietary) Source Type: news
Publication date: Available online 4 April 2020Source: Journal of Pharmaceutical and Biomedical AnalysisAuthor(s): Kaili Wang, Weijie Zhang, Zihan Wang, Ming Gao, Xinying Wang, Wenchao Han, Nan Zhang, Xia Xu
Source: Journal of Pharmaceutical and Biomedical Analysis - Category: Drugs & Pharmacology Source Type: research
More News: Afghanistan Health | American Health | Cancer | Cancer & Oncology | Cancer Vaccines | Cardiology | Cardiovascular | Children | China Health | Common Cold | Diabetes | Ebola | Ebola Vaccine | Economy | Endocrinology | Epidemics | Epidemiology | Health Management | Heart | Hypertension | India Health | Influenza | Influenza Vaccine | International Medicine & Public Health | Iran Health | Iraq Health | Italy Health | Kuwait Health | MERS | Middle East Health | Nurses | Nursing | Outbreaks | Respiratory Medicine | South Korea Health | Syria Health | Vaccines | Virology | Warnings | WHO