Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation
AbstractAs in other areas of expert judgment, intelligence analysis often requires judging the probability that hypotheses are true. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” (ACH) to improve judgment accuracy and analytic rigor, but these methods have received little empirical testing. In this experiment, we pitted ACH against a factorized Bayes's theorem (FBT) method, and we examined the value of recalibration (coherentization) an d aggregation methods for improving the accuracy of probability judgment. Analytic techniques such as ACH and FBT were ineffective in improving accuracy and handling correlated evidence, and ACH in fact decreased the coherence of probability judgments. In contrast, statistical postanalytic methods ( i.e., coherentization and aggregation) yielded large accuracy gains. A wide range of methods for instantiating these techniques were tested. The interactions among the factors considered suggest that prescriptive theorists and interventionists should examine the value ofensembles of judgment ‐support methods.
CONCLUSION: Prevalence of antibiotic use was high not only versus other hospitals in the region but globally including Africa, coupled with significant evidence of sub-optimal prescribing. Swift action is needed to improve future prescribing to reduce AMR. One or two areas should initially be targeted for quality improvement including development of local guidelines, documentation of antibiotic indications and/or stop/review dates. PMID: 33034234 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Authors: Rombauts A, Abelenda-Alonso G, Cuervo G, Gudiol C, Carratalà J Abstract INTRODUCTION: Despite adequate antibiotic coverage, community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and mortality worldwide. It induces both a local pulmonary and a systemic inflammatory response, particularly significant in severe cases. The intensity of the dysregulated host response varies from patient to patient and has a negative impact on survival and other outcomes. AREAS COVERED: This comprehensive review summarizes the pathophysiological aspects of the inflammatory response in CAP, brie...
Authors: Hammerschlag MR, Sharma R Abstract INTRODUCTION: Azithromycin was recommended as the first-line therapeutic regimen for treatment of genital infections in men and women by the Centers for Disease Control in 1998. A series of studies of azithromycin for treatment of rectal chlamydial infection in men who have sex with men (MSM) found that azithromycin was significantly less effective than doxycycline. AREAS COVERED: Literature on treatment of rectal C. trachomatis from 2000 through May 2020 was searched using PubMed. Retrospective and observational studies were identified documenting the frequency and t...
Authors: Reissier S, Cattoir V Abstract INTRODUCTION: Streptogramins (pristinamycin and quinupristin-dalfopristin) can be interesting options for the treatment of infections due to Gram-positive cocci, especially multidrug-resistant isolates. AREAS COVERED: This review provides an updated overview on structural and activity characteristics, mechanisms of action and resistance, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic and clinical use of streptogramins. EXPERT OPINION: The streptogramin antibiotics act by inhibition of the bacterial protein synthesis. They are composed of two chemically distinct compounds, namely typ...
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