Influence of demographically-realistic mortality schedules on vaccination strategies in age-structured models.

Influence of demographically-realistic mortality schedules on vaccination strategies in age-structured models. Theor Popul Biol. 2020 Feb 03;: Authors: Feng Z, Feng Y, Glasser JW Abstract Because demographic realism complicates analysis, mathematical modelers either ignore demography or make simplifying assumptions (e.g., births and deaths equal). But human populations differ demographically, perhaps most notably in their mortality schedules. We developed an age-stratified population model with births, deaths, aging and mixing between age groups. The model includes types I and II mortality as special cases. We used the gradient approach Feng et al. (2015, 2017) to explore the impact of mortality patterns on optimal strategies for mitigating vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles and rubella, which the international community has targeted for eradication. Identification of optimal vaccine allocations to reduce the effective reproduction number Rv under various scenarios are presented. Numerical simulations of the model with various types of mortality are carried out to ascertain the long-term effects of vaccination on disease incidence. We conclude that optimal vaccination strategies and long-term effects of vaccination may depend on demographic assumptions. PMID: 32027879 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Theoretical Population Biology - Category: Biology Authors: Tags: Theor Popul Biol Source Type: research