Why This Week Could Be Critical for Understanding How Bad the Coronavirus Outbreak Will Get

It has been less than two months since authorities in the central Chinese city of Wuhan announced they were investigating a mysterious pneumonia-like viral infection. In that time, the pathogen—later identified at novel coronavirus 2019-nCov—has spread around China with abandon—from a few dozen suspected cases to more than 20,000 confirmed infections, causing and more than 420 deaths. But this week could prove crucial for understanding how much farther the outbreak is likely to spread and whether the dramatic efforts of Chinese authorities to contain the coronavirus have been effective. Officials in China began placing entire cities on lockdown in an attempt to stop the spread of the deadly virus on Jan. 23, when outbound trains and flights from Wuhan— the biggest city in Hubei province, population 11 million— were suspended. The next day authorities broadened the lockdown to include 13 cities, and by Jan. 25 the blockade had expanded to 16 surrounding cities with a combined population of more than 50 million, creating what is believed to be the largest quarantine in human history. “This week we should start to see the effects of the containment strategy,” Ben Cowling, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, tells TIME. “This week is a critical week.” The virus appears to have an average incubation period of about five days, according to a study published by re...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized 2019-nCoV China Infectious Disease onetime overnight Source Type: news