Annual transition probabilities of overweight and obesity in older adults: Evidence from World Health Organization Study on global AGEing and adult health

Publication date: Available online 28 January 2020Source: Social Science & MedicineAuthor(s): Stella T. Lartey, Lei Si, Petr Otahal, Barbara de Graaff, Godfred O. Boateng, Richard Berko Biritwum, Nadia Minicuci, Paul Kowal, Costan G. Magnussen, Andrew J. PalmerAbstractOverweight/obesity is becoming increasingly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa including Ghana. However, transition probabilities, an essential component to develop cost-effective measures for weight management is lacking in this population. We estimated annual transition probabilities between three body mass index (BMI) categories: normal weight (BMI ≥18.5 and <25.0 kg/m2), overweight (BMI ≥25.0 and <30.0 kg/m2), and obesity (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2), among older adults aged ≥50 years in Ghana. Data were used from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 1496 (44.3% females) older adults in both Waves 1 (2007/8) and 2 (2014/15) of the Ghana WHO SAGE. A multistage Markov model was used to estimate annual transition probabilities. We further examined the impact of specific socio-economic factors on the transition probabilities. At baseline, 22.8% were overweight and 11.1% were obese. The annual transition probability was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.4%, 4.8%) from normal weight to overweight, 11.1% (95% CI: 9.5%, 13.0%) from overweight to normal weight and 4.9% (95% CI: 3.8%, 6.2%) from overweight to obesity. For obese individuals, the probability of remaining obese, transitioning to overweight and com...
Source: Social Science and Medicine - Category: Psychiatry & Psychology Source Type: research