Study on the spatial configuration of nursing homes for the elderly people in Shanghai: Based on their choice preference

Publication date: March 2020Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152Author(s): Shan Song, De Wang, Wei Zhu, Can WangAbstractBackgroundThe rapid population aging arouses the enormous demands of elderly people for institutional care services. Although the supply of nursing homes is still short in quantity, a structural imbalance on the utilization of nursing homes has appeared in many cities of China recently. Namely, when elderly people wait a long time for a bed of downtown nursing homes, many suburban ones are not fully utilized.PurposeThis paper aims to reveal the elderly people's preferences for the nursing homes, in order to clarify the reason for utilization imbalance and put forward the efficient strategies for planning practice.MethodA stated preference survey was undertaken to collect the choice data of respondents (n=293) in Shanghai, 2013. Discrete choice models were used in data analysis to explain the mechanism of preferences.FindingsAll seven attributes of nursing homes significantly affect elderly people's preferences. Disparities on the medical condition, transportation, and distance to home between downtown and suburban nursing homes are the leading cause of utilization imbalance. By optimizing the configuration of those factors, the crowded downtown elderly people could be attracted to suburban nursing homes. Finally, the mechanism was applied to a simulation of nursing home planning.
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Category: Science Source Type: research