IJERPH, Vol. 17, Pages 453: Forecast of Dengue Cases in 20 Chinese Cities Based on the Deep Learning Method
This study aimed to develop a timely accurate forecasting model of dengue based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks while only considering monthly dengue cases and climate factors. The performance of LSTM models was compared with the other previously published models when predicting DF cases one month into the future. Our results showed that the LSTM model reduced the average the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the predictions by 12.99% to 24.91% and reduced the average RMSE of the predictions in the outbreak period by 15.09% to 26.82% as compared with other candidate models. The LSTM model achieved superior performance in predicting dengue cases as compared with other previously published forecasting models. Moreover, transfer learning (TL) can improve the generalization ability of the model in areas with fewer dengue incidences. The findings provide a more precise forecasting dengue model and could be used for other dengue-like infectious diseases.
On 7 February 2020, the Chile IHR National Focal Point informed the Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) of the detection of three confirmed cases of autochthonous dengue fever reported on Easter Island.
TTP, a technology company based in Melbourn, UK, is developing a handheld PCR (polymerase chain reaction) diagnostic device that can rapidly detect influenza viruses, and one day other viruses, in samples of nasal mucus. The company claims that the s...
Conclusion: Almost all the women in our study showed serological evidence of Dengue immunity, suggesting that microcephaly can occur in DENV immune mothers. T cell immunity to Zika virus showed a multifunctional response to the antigens Env and NS1 and immune regulatory responses to NS5 and C protein. Our data support an argument that different viral products may skew the antiviral response to a more pro or anti-inflammatory outcome, with an associated impact on immunopathogenesis.
Conclusion: These results suggest that if no vector control measures are considered to be in place, the risk of new arboviral outbreaks in Cabo Verde is high. The vector control strategy adopted must include measures of public health directed to domestic water storage and management.
Paraguay health officials said on Friday that deaths from dengue fever increased to 16 in the South American country's worst outbreak of the disease in the last decade, severely straining its health system.
Dengue virus (DENV) infects hundreds of thousands of people annually in Indonesia. However, DENV sequence data from the country are limited, as samples from outbreaks must be shipped across long-distances to s...
CONCLUSIONS: To prevent or mitigate the spread of future arboviral introductions and outbreaks, the public health response should focus on behavioral and cultural attitudes, emphasizing personal mosquito protection and mosquito control at the community level. Outbreak responses can also be enhanced through the use of advanced GIS techniques, such as hot-spot analysis, to provide situational awareness and guide response efforts. PMID: 32040922 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Abstract A dengue outbreak occurred on Hawaii Island between September 2015 and March 2016. Entomological investigations were undertaken between December 2015 and February 2016 to determine which Aedes mosquito species were responsible for the outbreak. A total of 3,259 mosquitoes were collected using a combination of CDC autocidal gravid ovitraps, Biogents BG-Sentinel traps, and hand-nets; immature mosquitoes were collected during environmental surveys. The composition of species was Aedes albopictus (58%), Aedes aegypti (25%), Wyeomyia mitchelli (7%), Aedes vexans (5%), Culex quinquefasciatus (4%), and Aedes jap...
Conclusion: Dengue transmission appears sensitive to climatic variability. Elucidating the role of climatic factors in dengue fever helps in risk assessment and prevention of epidemics. PMID: 32003443 [PubMed - in process]