Interim effect evaluation of the hepatitis C elimination programme in Georgia: a modelling study

Publication date: Available online 18 December 2019Source: The Lancet Global HealthAuthor(s): Josephine G Walker, Tinatin Kuchuloria, David Sergeenko, Hannah Fraser, Aaron G Lim, Shaun Shadaker, Liesl Hagan, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Valeri Kvaratskhelia, Lia Gvinjilia, Malvina Aladashvili, Alexander Asatiani, Davit Baliashvili, Maia Butsashvili, Ivdity Chikovani, Irma Khonelidze, Irma Kirtadze, Mark H Kuniholm, David Otiashvili, Lali SharvadzeSummaryBackgroundGeorgia has a high prevalence of hepatitis C, with 5·4% of adults chronically infected. On April 28, 2015, Georgia launched a national programme to eliminate hepatitis C by 2020 (90% reduction in prevalence) through scaled-up treatment and prevention interventions. We evaluated the interim effect of the programme and feasibility of achieving the elimination goal.MethodsWe developed a transmission model to capture the hepatitis C epidemic in Georgia, calibrated to data from biobehavioural surveys of people who inject drugs (PWID; 1998–2015) and a national survey (2015). We projected the effect of the administration of direct-acting antiviral treatments until Feb 28, 2019, and the effect of continuing current treatment rates until the end of 2020. Effect was estimated in terms of the relative decrease in hepatitis C incidence, prevalence, and mortality relative to 2015 and of the deaths and infections averted compared with a counterfactual of no treatment over the study period. We also estimated treatment rates needed to rea...
Source: The Lancet Global Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research