The Basic Reproductive Number for Disease Systems with Multiple Coupled Heterogeneities.

The Basic Reproductive Number for Disease Systems with Multiple Coupled Heterogeneities. Math Biosci. 2019 Dec 10;:108294 Authors: Lloyd AL, Kitron U, Perkins TA, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Waller LA Abstract In mathematical epidemiology, a well-known formula describes the impact of heterogeneity on the basic reproductive number, R0, for situations in which transmission is separable and for which there is one source of variation in susceptibility and one source of variation in infectiousness. This formula is written in terms of the magnitudes of the heterogeneities, as quantified by their coefficients of variation, and the correlation between them. A natural question to ask is whether analogous results apply when there are multiple sources of variation in susceptibility and/or infectiousness. In this paper we demonstrate that with three or more coupled heterogeneities, R0 under separable transmission depends on details of the distribution of the heterogeneities in a way that is not seen in the well-known simpler situation. We provide explicit formulae for the cases of multivariate normal and multivariate log-normal distributions, showing that R0 can again be expressed in terms of the magnitudes of the heterogeneities and the pairwise correlations between them. The formulae, however, differ between the two multivariate distributions, demonstrating that no formula of this type applies generally when there are three or more coupled heterogene...
Source: Mathematical Biosciences - Category: Statistics Authors: Tags: Math Biosci Source Type: research