A Robust Estimator of Malaria Incidence from Routine Health Facility Data.

A Robust Estimator of Malaria Incidence from Routine Health Facility Data. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2019 Dec 16;: Authors: Thwing J, Camara A, Candrinho B, Zulliger R, Colborn J, Painter J, Plucinski MM Abstract Routine incident malaria case data have become a pillar of malaria surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa. These data provide granular, timely information to track malaria burden. However, incidence data are sensitive to changes in care seeking rates, rates of testing of suspect cases, and reporting completeness. Based on a set of assumptions, we derived a simple algebraic formula to convert crude incidence rates to a corrected estimation of incidence, adjusting for biases in variable and suboptimal rates of care seeking, testing of suspect cases, and reporting completeness. We applied the correction to routine incidence data from Guinea and Mozambique, and aggregate data for sub-Saharan African countries from the World Malaria Report. We calculated continent-wide needs for malaria tests and treatments, assuming universal testing but current care seeking rates. Countries in southern and eastern Africa reporting recent increases in malaria incidence generally had lower overall corrected incidence than countries in Central and West Africa. Under current care seeking rates, the unmet need for malaria tests was estimated to be 160 million (M) (interquartile range [IQR]: 139-188) and for malaria treatments to be 37 M (IQR: 29-51). Maps of corrected incidence we...
Source: The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene - Category: Tropical Medicine Authors: Tags: Am J Trop Med Hyg Source Type: research

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