Use of bootstrapped, regularised regression to identify factors associated with lamb-derived revenue on commercial sheep farms

Publication date: Available online 19 November 2019Source: Preventive Veterinary MedicineAuthor(s): Eliana Lima, Martin Green, Fiona Lovatt, Peers Davies, Lis King, Jasmeet KalerAbstractThe profitability of UK sheep farms is variable with many farms making a net loss. For economic sustainability, farms have to be profitable, therefore it is important to maximise income whilst controlling costs. The most important source of income in sheep flocks is from lamb production but there is little information on factors that explain variability between farms in revenue from lamb sales. The aim of this research was to identify farm, farmer and management factors likely to have the largest, most reliable associations with lamb-derived revenue.From a population of 830 sheep farms, 408 farmers completed an online questionnaire comprising over 300 variables. Total lamb-derived revenue was calculated for each farm using abattoir information including carcass classification. The median flock size was 560 ewes, median land size 265 acres, median revenue per acre from lambs sold was £197 (IQR = 120-296) and median revenue per ewe £95 (IQR = 72-123). A robust analytic approach using regularised (elastic net) regression with bootstrapping was implemented to account for multicollinearity in the data and to reduce the likelihood of model over-fitting. To provide model inference and allow ranking of variables in terms of relevance, covariate stability and coefficient distributions were ev...
Source: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research