Is it possible to organize automatic forecasting of expected radiation hazard level from Solar Cosmic Ray (SCR) events for spacecraft in the heliosphere and magnetosphere and for aircraft in the low Atmosphere?

We present the method of automatic forecasting of the impacts of Solar Cosmic Ray (SCR)/Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) and estimation of radiation hazard level. We use the model of SCR/SEP diffusion in general form and coupling functions for neutron monitors of worldwide network with different altitudes and cutoff rigidities, including space detectors such as GOES-11,12. Another observational data for the estimation of energy spectra of SCR/SEP are measurements of different neutron multiplicities by some neutron monitors (e.g., for great SCR/SEP event held in September 29, 1989). A 1-min data of muon telescopes and ionization chambers shielded by 10-cm PB are used for the detection of the highest-energy SCR/SEP components (e.g., for SCR/SEP events held on February 23, 1956; Dorman, 1957). We demonstrate algorithms to automatically estimate event starting times, determine the time evolution of SCR/SEP in space using coupling functions in the frame of spectrographic method, solve inverse problems associated with SCR/SEP generation in solar corona and propagation in the interplanetary space, automatically determine escaping into solar wind and propagation in space based on the CR observation data parameters of SCR/SEP generation and propagation in solar corona. Based on these parameters, we show that it is possible to automatically forecast the first 0.5 h data on expected level of radiation hazards from a full-time event (up to about 48 h) for objects in space on different ...

Source: Advances in Space Research - November 15, 2019 Category: Science Source Type: research