Correlation of the basic reproduction number ( < i > R < /i > < sub > 0 < /sub > ) and eco-environmental variables in Colombian municipalities with chikungunya outbreaks during 2014-2016

by V íctor Hugo Peña-García, Rebecca C. Christofferson Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in Colombia in 2014 into a population presumed fully susceptible. This resulted in a quick and intense spread across Colombia, resulting in an epidemic that affected an estimated 450,000 people. The reported Colombian cases accounted for over 49% of all the cases reported to the PAHO. Eco-environmental factors are known to be associated with the spread of arboviruses such as CHIKV, and likely contribute to the differences in transmission profiles that were observed across several municipalities. To determine the association of eco-environmental factors and C HIKV, the basic reproduction number (R0) in 85 municipalities, which accounted for 65.6% of reported CHIKV cases in Colombia, was estimated. Estimates ofR0 ranged from 1 to 9, where over 76% of municipalities hadR0 values between 1 and 2. When we looked at the distribution ofR0, the cumulative proportions were 20% withR0>2, 14% withR0>3, and 9% withR0>4. Next, we determined that there were different patterns of correlation between environmental and/or ecological variables andR0 when we considered differentR0 lower-thresholds. Broadly, we found that temperature-related variables are significantly and positively correlated toR0 regardless of the lower threshold, while other variables like duration of outbreak and size of the urban area are inversely related toR0. Specifically, we conclude that high values of temperature-related vari...
Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases - Category: Tropical Medicine Authors: Source Type: research