The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia

Publication date: Available online 5 November 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Iain S. Koolhof, Katherine B. Gibney, Silvana Bettiol, Michael Charleston, Anke Wiethoelter, Anna-Lena Arnold, Patricia T. Campbell, Peter J. Neville, Phyo. Aung, Tsubasa Shiga, Scott Carver, Simon M. FirestoneAbstractRoss River virus (RRV) is Australia’s most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. ...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research