Assessment of the sensitivity of the bovine tuberculosis eradication program in a high prevalence region of Spain using scenario tree modeling

Publication date: Available online 18 October 2019Source: Preventive Veterinary MedicineAuthor(s): Maria Luisa de la Cruz, Pilar Pozo, Anna Grau, Jesus Nacar, Javier Bezos, Andres Perez, Lucas Dominguez, Jose Luis Saez, Olga Minguez, Lucia de Juan, Julio AlvarezAbstractIn spite of the efforts invested to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle, the disease is still present in several developed countries, including Spain. Among the factors related with disease persistence in high prevalence areas, the lack of sensitivity of the screening test for detection of infected herds [single intradermal tuberculin (SIT) test] can play a major role. Here, a scenario tree model mimicking the diagnostic test scheme in place in the region of Castilla y Leon (Spain) was developed to estimate the probability of detecting bTB in an infected-non detected officially tuberculosis free (OTF) herd (herd sensitivity, HSe). In order to do so the probability of detecting at least one positive animal in the SIT test with/without post-mortem (detection of lesions and culture) confirmation in an infected herd was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation through @RISK (Palisade Co, NY, USA). Uncertainty on the accuracy of the diagnostic tests was introduced in the model using distributions based on the literature. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the predicted number of SIT/post-mortem positive animals in infected herds with those observed in newly detected bTB-infected herds in...
Source: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research