Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management

AbstractThe formal mathematical structure for decision making under uncertainty was first expressed in Savage's axioms over 60 years ago. But while the underlyingnormative concepts for decision making under uncertainty remain constant, thepractice of applying these concepts in real ‐world settings, as conducted by decision analysis (DA) specialists working with agencies and interested parties, has seen a major transformation in recent decades. The purpose of this article is to provide perspectives that characterize and interpret how DA practice for societal risk management q uestions has grown and is being transformed over the last 40 years. It addresses a series of themes for parsing changes in how DA has evolved toward more flexible approaches, moving beyond strict theoretical assumptions and constrained settings, and addresses multiple interested parties to provide i nsights rather than a single correct answer. The article clarifies the path from the initial DA formulation as a set of normative axioms, through gradual change into what is now the most flexible and least restrictive form of policy analysis. The article shows how the practice of DA for societal ris ks has become more attuned to a wide array of interests and perspectives, more behaviorally informed, more creative, and more informative for governance process. It addresses the following themes: the evolution in the basic orientation of DA, the increasingly important role of stakeholders in DA pra ctice, the im...

Source: Risk Analysis - July 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Timothy McDaniels Tags: Perspective Source Type: research