28.3 person-level prediction of progression along the bipolar trajectory

Bipolar disorder (BD) rarely comes out of the blue; rather, it is generally preceded by subthreshold mood symptoms that may portend a full-threshold bipolar I disorder/bipolar II disorder (BD-I/II), particularly in youth at familial risk. Over the past several years, we and others have used longitudinal data from familial and/or clinical high-risk groups to assess predictors of progression along the trajectory to BD-I/II. These analyses are a crucial first step but do not answer the most pertinent clinical question: What is the probability that a given individual will develop BD? Recently, we have built risk calculators (RC) using data from the Pittsburgh Bipolar Offspring (BIOS) and Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) studies to answer this question.

Source: Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry - September 30, 2019 Category: Psychiatry Authors: Danella Hafeman, John Merranko, Benjamin I. Goldstein, Dara J. Sakolsky, Rasim Somer Diler, David Axelson, Heather Meg Hower, Boris Birmaher, Coby Group, Bios Group Source Type: research