Game theory of vaccination and depopulation for managing livestock diseases and zoonoses on small-scale farms

The objective of this theoretical study was to elucidate how these behavioral adaptations may affect the epidemiology of highly-pathogenic avian influenza in domestic poultry and the outcome of the implemented control policies. We studied a symmetric population game where the players are broiler poultry farmers at risk of infection and where the between-farms disease transmission is both environmental and mediated by poultry trade. Three types of farmer behaviors were modelled: vaccination, depopulation, and cessation of poultry farming. We found that the transmission level of the disease through trade networks has strong qualitative effects on the system's epidemiological-economic equilibria. In the case of low trade-based transmission, when the monetary cost of infection is high, depopulation behavior can maintain a stable disease-free equilibrium. In addition, vaccination behavior can lead to eradication by private incentives alone – an outcome not seen for human diseases. In a scenario of high trade-based transmission, depopulation behavior has perverse epidemiological effects as it accelerates the spread of disease via poultry trade. In this situation, state interventions should focus on making vaccination technologies available at a low price rather than penalizing infected farms.Graphical abstractIn a population of small-scale poultry farmers who adjust different behaviors (population of coops, sale of flocks, vaccination) to manage an infectious disease, strateg...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

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The objective of this study is to assess the impact of LPMs closure on reducing zoonotic transmission of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and to make specific recommendations on the duration of closing the LPMs. Results show that the closure of LPMs can effectively control the spread of H7N9 avian influenza and reduce the incidence of human infection with H7N9. If cases of H7N9 avian influenza continue to occur, LPMs should close for at least 3 –4 weeks in susceptible areas to control the spread of infection.
Source: Journal of Public Health Policy - Category: Health Management Source Type: research
This study is the first full genome characterization H5N8 HPAIV in Iran. The data complete the puzzle of molecular epidemiology of H5N8 HPAIV in Iran and the region. Our study provides evidence for fast and continuing reassortment of H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, that might lead to changes in virus structural and functional characteristics such as the route and method of transmission of the virus and virus infective, pathogenic and zoonotic potential. PMID: 31174704 [PubMed - in process]
Source: Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases. - Category: Allergy & Immunology Authors: Tags: Comp Immunol Microbiol Infect Dis Source Type: research
AbstractIn recent decades, exceeding 60% of infectious cases in human beings are originated from pathogenic agents related to feral or companion animals. This figure continues to swiftly increase due to excessive exposure between human and contaminated hosts by means of applying unhygienic farming practices throughout society. In Asia countries —renowned for lax regulation towards animal-trading markets—have experienced tremendous outbreaks of zoonotic diseases every year. Meanwhile, various epidemic surges were first reported in the residential area of China—one of the largest distributor of all animal p...
Source: European Journal of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases - Category: Microbiology Source Type: research
This study is the first full genome characterization H5N8 HPAIV in Iran. The data complete the puzzle of molecular epidemiology of H5N8 HPAIV in Iran and the region. Our study provides evidence for fast and continuing reassortment of H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, that might lead to changes in virus structural and functional characteristics such as the route and method of transmission of the virus and virus infective, pathogenic and zoonotic potential.
Source: Comparative Immunology, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Source Type: research
ahesh Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are a major cause of respiratory illness and are responsible for yearly epidemics associated with more than 500,000 annual deaths globally. Novel IAVs may cause pandemic outbreaks and zoonotic infections with, for example, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of the H5N1 and H7N9 subtypes, which pose a threat to public health. Treatment options are limited and emergence of strains resistant to antiviral drugs jeopardize this even further. Like all viruses, IAVs depend on host factors for every step of the virus replication cycle. Host kinases link multiple signaling pathways ...
Source: Viruses - Category: Virology Authors: Tags: Review Source Type: research
Purpose: Avian influenza A(H7N9) is considered an important zoonotic pathogen, human cases of which have been increasing in multiple epidemics waves since it was idnetified in 2013. Characterising the temporal pattern of mortality or clinical severity of human infection can identify changes in viral pathogenicity and help inform emergence and pandemic risk assessments. Here, we consider how the severity of A(H7N9) in humans has changed by epidemic wave, after adjusting for demographic and spatial factors, and including cases up to June 2018.
Source: International Journal of Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Tags: 21.024 Source Type: research
Source: European Union, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Published: 2019. This five-page report is based on data on zoonotic influenza for 2017 retrieved from Epidemic Intelligence on May 18, 2018. No human cases of avian influenza were reported in the European Union/European Economic Area. Sporadic cases were reported from Africa and Asia. Influenza viruses A(H1N1)v, A(H1N2)v, and A(H3N2)v of swine origin caused human cases in Switzerland and the United States. (PDF)
Source: Disaster Lit: Resource Guide for Disaster Medicine and Public Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: news
Source: European Union, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Published: 2019. This five-page report is based on data on zoonotic influenza for 2017 retrieved from Epidemic Intelligence on May 18, 2018. No human cases of avian influenza were reported in the European Union/European Economic Area. Sporadic cases were reported from Africa and Asia. Influenza viruses A(H1N1)v, A(H1N2)v, and A(H3N2)v of swine origin caused human cases in Switzerland and the United States. (PDF)
Source: Disaster Lit: Resource Guide for Disaster Medicine and Public Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: news
This report details the first documented outbreak of adenovirus D53 epidemic keratoconjunctivitis in the United States. Seventeen epidemic keratoconjunctivitis cases were identified; after the primary case, all cases occurred in eye care clinic patients or their household contacts. Infection prevention lapses were associated with the outbreak, specifically improper ocular equipment disinfection.
Source: CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report - Category: American Health Tags: Adenovirus Infection Avian Influenza Cancer MMWR Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report Secondhand Smoke Uterine Cancer Zoonotic diseases Source Type: news
In this study, we have constructed computational models for host tropism prediction on human-adapted subtypes of influenza HA proteins using random forest. The feature vectors of the prediction models were generated based on seven physicochemical properties of amino acids from influenza sequences of three major hosts. Feature aggregation and associative rules were further applied to select top 20 features and extract host-associated physicochemical signatures on the combined model of nonspecific subtypes. The prediction model achieved high performance ( Accuracy=0.948 , Precision=0.954 , MCC=0.922 ). Support and confidence...
Source: Journal of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology - Category: Bioinformatics Authors: Tags: J Bioinform Comput Biol Source Type: research
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