Striking Iran In Response to Abqaiq Attack Would Be a Mistake

Christopher A. PrebleThe smoke hasn ’t yet cleared from the attack on Saudi Aramco’s facility, but U.S. officials were quick to pin blame on Iran, with some even going so far as to suggest thatmilitary strikes could be – and should be – in the offing.Such a move should upset constitutional purists; Congress hasn ’t authorized military action against Iran for these purposes. The case that the Trump administration might present to Congress in an attempt to build support for strikes is unlikely to be compelling. Indeed, the story of the attack and what U.S. military strikes in retaliation would achieve is a lot more complicated than the war hawks would have you believe.First, everyone should keep the likely economic impact in perspective. TheWall Street Journal reported on Saturday that production losses from the shutdown at the Abqaiq facility would amount to “about 5.7 million barrels a day,” or “roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude oil.” But such supply shocks are rarely long-lasting, and facilities like the one at Abqaiq are often quickly repaired. Saudi Aramco is no different from any other company in that it wants to increas e production as quickly as possible, and so is highly motivated to make speedy repairs. (Boston University’s Josh Shifrinson makes a related pointhere.)Second, the energy market in general is far more resilient than people give it credit for. In addition to the strategic petroleum reserve,which President Trump has h...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs