Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Publication date: Available online 19 August 2019Source: The Lancet HIVAuthor(s): Tahvi D Frank, Austin Carter, Deepa Jahagirdar, Molly H Biehl, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Samantha Leigh Larson, Megha Arora, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Krista M Steuben, Hedayat Abbastabar, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Direslgne Misker Abyu, Maryam Adabi, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Alireza Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Elham Ahmadian, Ehsan AhmadpourSummaryBackgroundUnderstanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.MethodsWe determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassificatio...
Source: The Lancet HIV - Category: Infectious Diseases Source Type: research