Ecological niche modeling for the prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemiology in current and projected future in Adana, Turkey.

Ecological niche modeling for the prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemiology in current and projected future in Adana, Turkey. J Vector Borne Dis. 2019 Apr-Jun;56(2):127-133 Authors: Artun O Abstract Background & objectives: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is widespread in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world including, Tukey. Environmental determinants for the CL endemic areas in Turkey are relatively poorly understood. The aim of the present study was to develop a model based on ecological niche modeling (ENM) to predict the distribution of CL in endemic areas of Adana Province in Turkey. Methods: The environmental data from different sources were extracted and information on 1831 native CL cases, obtained from the Provincial Health Directorate of Adana were recorded. The location information obtained from the Ministry of Health database were used for modeling the current probability of CL occurrence and predicting its future distribution using ENM analyses. ArcGIS and MaxEnt models were used to explore the ecological conditions of the disease. Results: According to the MaxEnt model, the area under the curve (AUC) values for the current and projected future of CL were 0.868 and 0.867, respectively. The environmental variables, Bio1 (Annual mean temperature), Bio4 (Temperature seasonality) and DEM (Digital elevation model) were found to be associated with the presence of human cases of Leishmani...
Source: Journal of Vector Borne Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Tags: J Vector Borne Dis Source Type: research