Real-time predictions of the 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models

Publication date: Available online 23 July 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): J. Daniel Kelly, Junhyung Park, Ryan J. Harrigan, Nicole A. Hoff, Sarita D. Lee, Rae Wannier, Bernice Selo, Mathias Mossoko, Bathe Njoloko, Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Placide Mbala-Kingebeni, George W. Rutherford, Thomas B. Smith, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke, Jean Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Anne W. Rimoin, Frederic Paik SchoenbergAbstractAs of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbreak in DRC extending both before and after June 16, 2019, and evaluated their accuracy by comparing forecasted vs. actual outbreak sizes, out-of-sample log-likelihood scores and the error per day in the median forecast. The median estimated outbreak sizes for the prospective thee-, six-, and nine-...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research