Modeling the role of carrier and mobile herds on foot-and-mouth disease virus endemicity in the Far North Region of Cameroon

We present a spatial stochastic model of disease dynamics that incorporates a spatial transmission kernel in a modified Gillespie algorithm, and use it to evaluate two hypothesized drivers of endemicity: asymptomatic carriers and the movement of mobile herds. The model is parameterized using data from the pastoral systems in the Far North Region of Cameroon. Our computational study provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that asymptomatic carriers, but not mobile herds, are a driver of endemicity.Graphical abstract
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research