An assessment of baseline and downscaled projected climate variables in the Upper Manyame sub-catchment of Zimbabwe

Publication date: Available online 9 July 2019Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/CAuthor(s): Oliver Masimba, Webster Gumindoga, Alexander Mhizha, Donald Tendayi RwasokaAbstractThe study assessed historical trends in precipitation and temperature using Mann-Kendall trend and Wilcoxon signed rank tests in the Upper Manyame sub-catchment of Zimbabwe. The projected precipitation and temperature for the 2030s and 2060s were downscaled using the Statistical DownScaling Model with data from HadCM3 and CanESM2. Trend analysis results showed a declining statistically non-significant trend in precipitation and a statistically significant rising trend in maximum and minimum temperature. The projected temperature analysis through the A2a and B2a scenarios showed that the maximum temperature will increase by 0.39°C and 0.35°C for the 2030s and 0.64°C and 0.51°C for the 2060s respectively whilst the minimum temperature will increase by 0.15°C and 0.11°C for the 2030s and 0.25°C and 0.2°C for the 2060s respectively. The downscaled CanESM2 data showed that maximum and minimum temperature will increase by 0.5°C to 0.9°C and 0.3°C to 0.8°C respectively for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Monthly projections for HadCM3 in both the 2030s and 2060s, revealed that the amount of precipitation will decrease in January, March and October and generally increase in February, November and December. There will be a20-40% decline in precipitation for RCP2.6, and 50% for RCP8.5. The resul...
Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts ABC - Category: Science Source Type: research