Risk –Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precise conclusion on the overall risk–risk trad eoff. The value of this article comes less from specific quantitative conclusions and more from providing an analytical framework and a better overall understanding of the policy decision. The article demonstrates the importance of integrated analysis of global risks and the policies to address them , as well as the challenge of quantitative evaluation of complex social processes such as violent conflict.

Source: Risk Analysis - June 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seth D. Baum Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research