A predictive policy model to forecast outcomes of drug development in developing countries

International Journal of Health Governance, Ahead of Print. Purpose The World Health Organization has pointed out that the majority of developing countries currently rely on imported drugs, in spite of the fact that there is potential for them to produce their own drugs. The purpose of this paper is to present a framework as an innovation policy model that can strategically predict the outcome of drug development investment in developing countries. Design/methodology/approach In order to explore a model relevant to the policy-making process, the literature was systematically reviewed with a focus on the impact of policy changes on drug development in developing countries. Findings An innovation policy model consists of the relational influences of contextual variables of pharma capabilities, innovation incentives and political factors affecting drug development in developing countries, derived from a dissenting policy-making perspective. This was built to test two hypotheses of a positive relationship between the above variables; and a perspectives gap between the pharmaceutical companies and the policymakers. These hypotheses address issues related to the lack of drug development in developing countries. Research limitations/implications This paper presents a conceptual framework for the evaluation and provides examples of its use, but it is currently at a relatively early stage of research. Further work is currently underway and will later be presented to the same journ...
Source: International Journal of Health Governance - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research