The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions

Publication date: Available online 22 May 2019Source: The Lancet Global HealthAuthor(s): Katherine E Sleeman, Maja de Brito, Simon Etkind, Kennedy Nkhoma, Ping Guo, Irene J Higginson, Barbara Gomes, Richard HardingSummaryBackgroundSerious life-threatening and life-limiting illnesses place an enormous burden on society and health systems. Understanding how this burden will evolve in the future is essential to inform policies that alleviate suffering and prevent health system weakening. We aimed to project the global burden of serious health-related suffering requiring palliative care until 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.MethodsWe projected the future burden of serious health-related suffering as defined by the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief, by combining WHO mortality projections (2016–60) with estimates of physical and psychological symptom prevalence in 20 conditions most often associated with symptoms requiring palliative care. Projections were described in terms of absolute numbers and proportional change compared with the 2016 baseline data. Results were stratified by World Bank income regions and WHO geographical regions.FindingsBy 2060, an estimated 48 million people (47% of all deaths globally) will die with serious health-related suffering, which represents an 87% increase from 26 million people in 2016. 83% of these deaths will occur in low-income and middle-income countries. Serious health-related suffering will incr...
Source: The Lancet Global Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research