Geographic shifts in < i > Aedes aegypti < /i > habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control

by Catherine A. Lippi, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, M. E. Franklin Baja ña Loor, Jose E. Dueñas Zambrano, Nelson A. Espinoza Lopez, Jason K. Blackburn, Sadie J. Ryan Arboviral disease transmission byAedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution ofAedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment ofAe.aegypti into...
Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases - Category: Tropical Medicine Authors: Source Type: research