Application of a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and support vector regression in forecasting hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, China

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and substantial financial burden in China, especially in Wuhan city. Hence, there is an urgent need to construct a model to predict the incidence of HFMD that could make the prevention and control of this disease more effective. The incidence data of HFMD of Wuhan city from January 2009 to December 2016 were used to fit a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and support vector regression (SVR) model. Then, the SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was constructed. Subsequently, the fitted SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was applied to obtain the fitted HFMD incidence from 2009 to 2016. Finally, the fitted SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD of the year 2017. To assess the validity of the model, the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the actual values and predicted values of HFMD incidence (2017) were calculated. From 2009 to 2017, a total of 107636 HFMD cases were reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, and the male-to-female ratio is 1.60:1. The age group of 0 to 5 years old accounts for 95.06% of all reported cases and scattered children made up the large proportion (accounted for 56.65%). There were 2 epidemic peaks, from April to July and September to December, respectively, with an emphasis on the former. High-prevalence areas mainly emerge in Dongxihu District, Jiangxia District, and Hon...
Source: Medicine - Category: Internal Medicine Tags: Research Article: Observational Study Source Type: research